Predicting a Rugby League World Cup usually means picking Australia and moving on. This year, that call is not quite so simple.
## Group Stage Expectations
With only 10 teams in the men’s competition, group stage upsets are more likely than in bloated 16-team formats. Expect Papua New Guinea to push hard on home soil in Port Moresby, and watch for Fiji to cause problems for a higher-ranked opponent early in the tournament.
## The Semifinal Picture
Australia, England, New Zealand and Samoa look like the most likely semifinalists based on squad depth and recent form. Samoa’s run to the 2022 final proved they can live with the Kangaroos physically, and another deep run would cement their status as a genuine top-two nation rather than a talented outsider.
## Final Prediction
– Australia remains the most likely champion given NRL depth advantage
– Samoa is the strongest threat to finally end Australia’s dominance
– England’s home comforts are gone this cycle, which could hurt their semifinal chances
– New Zealand’s Kiwis are the wildcard capable of an upset run
## Women’s and Wheelchair Tournaments
Australia’s Jillaroos enter as favourites in the women’s competition, much as the Kangaroos do in the men’s draw, though New Zealand and England have both narrowed that gap in recent years. The wheelchair tournament has historically been closely fought, and expect another tight final there too.
For the full case on which nations have the rosters to back these predictions, read our teams to watch breakdown. If you want the players who could decide these matches, see players to watch, and our RLWC2026 complete guide has everything else you need before kickoff.
## Bottom Line
Australia remains the smart pick, but Samoa gives this World Cup a genuine chance at a new name on the trophy.