With the tournament now in the quarterfinals, enough evidence has emerged to form a clearer picture of how the FIFA World Cup 2026 could conclude on July 19.
Path to the Final
France has already secured its semifinal place with a 2-0 win over Morocco and remains the only unbeaten team not to need extra time in any match. The team’s semifinal opponent will be the winner of Spain against Belgium, played July 10. On the other side of the bracket, the winner of Norway against England on July 11 will face the winner of Argentina against Switzerland the same day.
The Likely Finalists
Based on current form, France and Argentina appear best positioned to reach the final, given France’s dominant statistical profile and Argentina’s knockout-round resilience behind Lionel Messi. A France-Argentina final would also set up a rematch of the 2022 final, won by Argentina on penalties.
Golden Boot Outlook
Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi remain tied atop the Golden Boot race with eight goals each, with Mbappé holding the tiebreaker advantage on assists. Erling Haaland, on seven goals, remains within reach should Norway continue its surprise run.
Biggest Surprises So Far
Paraguay’s penalty-shootout win over Germany, Morocco’s run to the quarterfinals, Cape Verde’s historic World Cup debut, and Norway’s elimination of Brazil stand as the tournament’s most significant upsets, reflecting how competitive the expanded 48-team format has proven.
The Bottom Line
While France holds the strongest current form, Argentina’s title defense behind Messi remains a serious threat, making the coming semifinals likely to decide the tournament’s ultimate direction.
