It’s never too early to start the MVP conversation, and the 2026-27 race already has plenty of compelling storylines thanks to a wild offseason of star movement.
What Voters Typically Reward
- Elite individual production on a team with a strong regular-season record
- A clear “best player on the best team” narrative
- Availability — missing significant time historically hurts a candidate’s case
Early Names in the Conversation
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the season looking to defend his award after leading Oklahoma City deep into the playoffs again. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s fresh start in Miami and a loaded Philadelphia roster featuring Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James both create new team-context storylines that could reshape the race depending on how those rosters gel.
Why Team Success Matters So Much
MVP voting has historically leaned heavily toward players on top-four seeds. That means the race is closely tied to how the conference standings shake out over the course of the season, not just individual statistics.
Dark Horse Candidates
Every season produces at least one surprise MVP finalist who wasn’t part of the preseason conversation. Keep an eye on breakout performances from rising young stars if their teams overperform expectations.
How the Race Typically Evolves
Narratives shift constantly between opening night and the ballot deadline in April. A player who dominates the early-season conversation can fall out of contention entirely with a mid-season slump or injury, while a quieter start can be forgotten if a player closes strong on a team that surges up the standings.
Bottom Line
The MVP race will look completely different by All-Star Weekend than it does on opening night. Track team records as closely as individual stats to see how the conversation evolves.