Ousmane Dembélé’s name is still fresh on the trophy after his breakout 2025 triumph, but the Ballon d’Or race never really stops. With a new season already producing headline-grabbing form across Europe, here’s an early look at who could be lifting the award this autumn.
The Defending Champion’s Case
Dembélé won last year’s award after inspiring PSG to a historic treble, and his continued excellence during the club’s Champions League title defence and France’s World Cup run keeps him firmly in the conversation. Repeat winners are rare in the modern era, but so is the level Dembélé has sustained.
The Chasing Pack
- Lamine Yamal — last year’s runner-up, now with another season of Barcelona’s La Liga title defence and continued growth into arguably the most talented teenager in world football
- Kylian Mbappé — La Liga’s top scorer this season with 25 goals, adding a domestic title to his individual numbers
- Harry Kane — Bundesliga top scorer with 36 goals as Bayern Munich shattered their own scoring record, detailed in our Bundesliga season guide
- Spain’s World Cup winners — with the 2026 World Cup won on North American soil, several Spanish stars enter the conversation on the back of the sport’s biggest stage
What the Voters Tend to Reward
Ballon d’Or voting has consistently favoured a mix of trophies and individual output, which is why the winner almost always comes from a club that lifted the Champions League, a major domestic title, or international silverware. That formula makes PSG, Barcelona and Bayern’s biggest names the obvious starting point for any shortlist discussion.
Why This Race Feels Wide Open
With Real Madrid searching for answers after a trophyless domestic season and the usual suspects like Rodri sidelined by injury in previous cycles, this year’s field lacks a single dominant favourite the way recent editions have had. Expect the conversation to sharpen considerably once the Champions League knockout stages arrive in the spring, alongside continued strong form from breakout performers in the Serie A and Ligue 1 title races.